.png)
This is the first in a series on the future of work, taking a deep dive into our traditional view of work and what jobs and organizations will look like in the future. This post focuses on the macro trends driving the future of work. Every assumption we have about work, jobs, workplace, employers, security, and preparation for careers is being called into question.
The thesis of this series is that we are in a massive shift in how we work and how organizations function, driven by technology and accelerated by the pandemic. It is about much more than a return to the office. . . work for most of us will never be the same again. Those who learn and adapt the fastest will be the winners.
Your thoughts, reactions, and challenges are invited and are the key to learning. Join us in exploring this new world of work. The trends contributing to the massive shift in work and organizations include:
1. Speed of change and short life cycles
Change is accelerating, often from linear to exponential, resulting in the lifecycles of companies, products, careers, jobs, skills, and expertise moving from years to months and potentially days and hours. The abbreviated lifecycles impact everything about work and organizations.
2. Decentralization of everything
Almost every sector of society is moving from a few providers to many, from centralization to decentralization. A few examples include:
· News and Entertainment –everyone is a content creator.
· Hotels –everyone is an innkeeper.
· Taxis –everyone is a taxi driver.
· Libraries –everyone holds a library in their hand.
· Hospitals and clinics – everyone’s living room is an exam room
· Employers - everyone is an entrepreneur
3. Increased complexity and uncertainty
What used to be the simplest decisions with three or four options—buying cereal in a grocery store, selecting fixtures for a new home, choosing a movie to watch—now involve seemingly infinite options. The complexity and uncertainty all around us present new challenges for decision making.
4. Explosion of knowledge
Advances in science and other fields have led to an explosion of knowledge. The rate at which knowledge doubles has accelerated dramatically, with the potential to move from centuries to years and may be months and days in some instances. What I learned last year may already be antiquated.Being an expert and keeping up with advances is a challenge if not impossible.
5. Advances in technology and automation
While fire and the wheel started us on the technology journey, the pace has accelerated in recent years. As we automate more and more tasks, from building cars, to performing complex surgeries, to “talking” with customers, the question many are asking is what will be left for humans to do.
6. The digital revolution and introduction of AI
The industrial revolution has given way to the information age and the digital revolution impacting every aspect of our lives. The introduction and integration of AI into our work and lives is poised to be one of the greatest disruptions in recorded history.
7. The rise of economic uncertainity
For the non-economist, it is hard to identify an economic trend other than uncertainty. Looking over time on a global basis, extreme poverty has declined dramatically although much work remains. In the US the pandemic spurred massive government spending and inflation and interest rates exploded. The economic divide between rich and poor continues to increase. Tariffs and the fear of trade wars contribute to market fluctuations. While economic shifts have always impacted employment levels, today uncertainty is fundamentally changing how we think about the concept of jobs.
How could work and organizations not change dramatically in the context of these trends? None of the trends stands alone. They are interdependent and can be summarized in seven words: speed, decentralization, complexity, knowledge, technology, AI, and uncertainty.